To that end, this section of our site is devoted to bringing visitors important and insightful information that is broader in scope, forward-thinking, and often quite contrarian in nature. Buckle up!
December 20, 2011: Views from the Crowsnest
Our 2011 Annual Forecast created quite a stir, with many readers remarking that your author's view of the world seemed unrealistically dark and pessimistic. Unfortunately the majority of the risks we identified either contributed directly to... Read more...
October 18, 2011: Views from the Crowsnest
Economic fundamentals, government & household debt and Unemployment levels remain elevated, and the US is likely already in a mild recession. China's bubble is starting to leak slightly, and the European approach to dealing with its rolling debt crises is laughable... Read more...
September 18, 2011: Views from the Crowsnest
Where shall we begin; it is with high US unemployment and faltering GDP, second quarter 2011 negative Canadian GDP growth, a pending Greek bond default, plummeting European equity markets and potentially insolvent banks, Middle East violenc... Read more...
August 14, 2011: Views from the Crowsnest
After surviving historic 5 to 7% intra-day volatility all four days from August 8 to 11, things seem to be settling down a bit. With price patterns of the last several weeks, serious technical damage has been done to broader equity markets. Read more...
July 26, 2011: Views from the Crowsnest
Prior to our May 17th publication, our portfolio managers had already begun trimming equity exposure in client accounts and have continued to do so, keeping net declines to a minimum and thereby adding value versus the markets...and the buy, hold and hope approach. Read more...
May 15, 2011: Views from the Crowsnest - NEW!
Preparing readers for challenging times ahead is an essential part of the VCN mission. Our habit is to peer out on the horizon from our perch in the Crows Nest and report on the opportunities and risks we see emerging on this journey through time and space. Read more...
April 15, 2011: Views from the Crowsnest
"Are we there yet?" The destination in question is the tipping point for equity markets. Unlike a road trip with maps, GPS, and road signs, it's much harder to answer that question definitively. Read more...
March 15, 2011: Views from the Crowsnest
"Beware the Ides of March" was the warning to Julius Caesar about the date of the assassination conspiracy that was fomenting at the epicentre of The Roman Empire in 44 B.C. Caesar had started to believe the spin of the Political Elites about his status as a demagogue, and was clearly in love with himself. Read more...
February 15, 2011: Views from the Crowsnest
What a difference a month makes. In the January edition of Views from the Crows Nest (VCN)
we referred to the rapid revolution in Tunisia, and were suspicious of food price inflation-based
contagion spreading across North Africa and the Middle East. Read more...
January 15, 2011: Views from the Crowsnest
Equity markets continue to play out as anticipated in our 2011 Annual Forecast. A much-needed minor correction has recently begun as we entered earnings season stateside. Our current upside target for the S&P 500 continues to be the 1350-1380 range. Broad market sentiment continues to get more Bullish, which raises the danger. Read more...
December 15, 2010: Views from the Crowsnest
Welcome to the December 2010 issue of Views from the Crows Nest, which also serves as our 2011 Annual Forecast. Having spent most of my professional career serving people with common sense and very competent critical thinkers such as engineers, accountants, entrepreneurs, medical professionals, etc, I understand the need to provide evidence of my
views. Read more...
November 15, 2010: Views from the Crowsnest
"Patience is a virtue, get it if you can; seldom found in women and never found in men." Today, it seems that almost everyone is impatient, with ladies still demonstrating more of this elusive virtue. Serial readers of this newsletter know that I end every issue with a reference to patience and discipline. This is not accidental. Read more...
October 15, 2010: Views from the Crowsnest
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Southern Alberta finally gets summer in late September and early October, and the historically worst calendar month for U.S. equity markets- September - turns in its best performance since 1939. In our August 15th, 2010 edition of Views from the Crows Nest we were buckling up for a rocky ride in the 9 month, though we did acknowledge the possibility of several rallies. Markets have an innate ability to find ways to hurt most investors most of the time, leaving many people scratching their heads. We are always happy to be wrong when it means that things get better for our clients. Read more...
August 15, 2010: Views from the Crowsnest
We humans love certainty and hate the opposite. That’s why we work so hard to discern the future: to gain a degree of certainty and the feelings of security and control that follow. The smarter and more powerful you are, the more frustrating uncertainty is. Given that, imagine how difficult it must have been for Fedhead Ben Bernanke – arguably the most powerful public figure in the world – to admit to everyone a fortnight ago that the future is “unusually uncertain.” Do I smell scorched ego? Obviously, the future has always been uncertain and always will be, but in the words of Yogi Berra,”The future ain’t what it used to be.” We will speak to this concept in future communications. Read more...
Find out “What the Mutual Fund Industry Does Not Want You to Know”. Listen to Larry Berman discuss how mutual funds are structured and why consumers need to be educated about how they really work to make informed decisions about including them in their investment portfolio. Read more….
June 7, 2010: Views from the Crowsnest
We are publishing this edition of Views from the Crows Nest about a week ahead of schedule. We believe this is necessary because of risk in our current market environment. The majority of people rarely listen to warnings of imminent danger unless they understand the worldview of the person issuing the warning, and have sufficient time to process and accept the context of the warning. We are willing to risk being slightly early rather than risk being too late. Forewarned is forearmed. Read more...
April 16, 2010: Views from the Crowsnest
Most stock valuations are stretched, GDP and profit growth projections are laughably high and sovereign debt issues continue to rumble. Yet, here we are in mid-April 2010 and markets just seem to keep grinding higher, with the TSX just above 12,000 and the S&P 500 just under 1,200. Read more...
March 20, 2010: Robert Prechter: An Interview
Elliott Wave International Founder and CEO Robert Prechter appears regularly on Bloomberg television and has been featured on CNBC and media from around the world. Robert Prechter has written 13 books on finance, beginning with Elliott Wave Principle in 1978, which predicted a 1920s-style stock market boom. Read more...
February 16, 2010: Views from the Crowsnest
We define "wealth" as "that which clients value" and this definition obviously extends far beyond investment portfolios. The volatility of the last few weeks is starting to raise questions like "Are we there yet?" in reference to the major downturn we've been anticipating. Read more...
December 17, 2009: Views from the Crowsnest
When I sat down a month ago to write this communication, it was intended to be the first quarterly communication to connect with our valued clients about topics relevant to your wealth, health and happiness. After about 80+ hours of research and editing over 4 weeks and listening to repeated expressions of concern over how much time I've been pouring into a "newsletter" (thank you for caring, Janet), it has morphed into a discussion of various important subjects and a market forecast of sorts. Read more...
